Mega ships are the future, but at the price of overcapacity: top MOL man
G6 Alliance members are studying options for buying 18,000-TEU plus box ships, but no decision has yet been made, according to Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL) managing executive officer TK Konishi.
"Perhaps [we will have a] maximum two sets of 18,000 to 19,000-TEU ships by 2020, or by 2022 or 2023. It's a long-term issue," with each member contributing up to four vessels to share equal responsibility.
By comparison the rival P3 Network of Maersk, CMA CGM and MSC is due to operate at least twenty-nine 18,000 to 19,000 TEUers by 2016, provided it gains regulatory approval.
The careful approach is partly due to G6's smaller market share on Asia-Europe routes. Mr Konishi believes the largest ships within the G6 network, at 13,000 to 14,000 TEU, could be just as competitive as P3's bigger vessels, he told Lloyd's List in an interview.
"It's not really the size of ships that matters, but slot costs," Mr Konishi said. "We'll have 48 ships (of 13,000 TEU-14,000 TEU) by 2016, mostly by 2015... only five of them are ordered before the Lehman shock (at high prices)."
G6 deploys on Asia-North Europe and Asia-Mediterranean services 40 vessels larger than 13,000 TEU. "Those ships are very cost competitive."
Said Mr Konishi: "If we order 18,000 to 19,000-TEU ships now, those ships can be much cheaper... then there will be some cost benefits."
MOL is confident that G6 can widen its network to cover transpacific and transatlantic trades from the second quarter as planned.
"We have been operating in accordance with our FMC filings... from that perspective we have antitrust immunity," Mr Konishi said.
"As long as we discuss all sorts of things fully lawful as filed in agreements, I don't really see any reason we have to be in the TSA to operate in the alliance."
On liner alliances upsizing vessels in their networks over the past two years, he said, it is "kind of a vicious circle but one of the simplest, most straightforward ways to lower our slot costs".
With regards to the most viable trade routes of the future given the size of the mammoth breed of vessels, MOL's estimates, a suezmax boxship would be able to carry 200,000 TEU of containers in 24 rows, with a length of 415 metres and 16.3 metre draft. In comparison, a Triple-E class vessel has 23 rows, with a 400 metre length and 16 metre draft.
The Panama Canal's expansion would draw 8,000 TEU-9,000 TEU ships from Asia-Europe to Asia-US east coast trades, squeezing out panamax vessels or smaller.
"Those 8,000 TEU-9,000 TEU ships will have better employment... the surplus of panamax sector is more of a problem for owners, rather than for operators," Mr Konishi said.
